CORN: Corn exports for 2015/16 are projected 50 million bushels lower, reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher projected exports for Brazil and Canada. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected 25 million bushels higher at 1,785 million bushels.
SOYBEANS: Soybean supply and use projections for 2015/16 are unchanged from last month. Soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 465 million bushels which, if realized, would be the highest since 2006/07. Soybean oil used for methyl ester is raised 200 million pounds for 2015/16 reflecting the recent Environmental Protection Agency announcement of the biodiesel mandate for 2016.
WHEAT: No changes are made to the U.S. all wheat balance sheet this month. By-class, the only changes are a 10-million-bushel increase in 2015/16 Hard Red Winter exports that is offset by a 10-million-reduction in Hard Red Spring exports. Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.3 million tons primarily on increased production but also higher beginning stocks.
RICE: The U.S. 2015/16 rice supply and use is changed very little from a month ago. The all rice import forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 24.5 million, all in long-grain, as the pace to date is slower than expected. No changes are made to 2015/16 use. All rice domestic and residual
SUGAR: U.S. sugar production for 2015/16 is projected at 8.991 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of 181,104 over last month. Beet sugar is projected 82,775 STRV higher at 5.158 million based on higher processor estimated sucrose content.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton 2015/16 supply and demand forecasts include reduced production and exports this month; ending stocks are revised down marginally. The U.S. crop is forecast at 13.0 million bales, down 250,000 from last month, due mainly to lower production in North and South Carolina. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are reduced 200,000 based on the lower available supply and lagging sales to date.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month. Beef production is lowered for 2015 due to a slower pace of fed cattle marketing’s and consequently, lower steer and heifer slaughter. However, as the pace of marketing’s is slower, carcass weights are expected to be heavier, providing a slight counterbalance to lower slaughter.
Pork production is raised for 2015 on the pace of slaughter in November and early December. No change is made to 2016. USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 23, providing an indication of producers’ hog production intentions into 2016.
Broiler production is lowered for both 2015 and 2016 as hatchery data points to slower growth in broiler production. Egg production is lowered in 2015 based on recent production data, but hatchery data supports a slightly higher production forecast for early 2016.
Turkey prices for 2015 are reduced on current prices, but are unchanged for 2016. Egg prices are lowered for the end of 2015 and into early 2016, reflecting recent price movements.
The milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as growth in milk per cow in 2015 and 2016 is slowed. Fat basis imports are reduced for 2015 on slower butter imports; on a skim-solids basis, imports are unchanged. No change is made to 2016 imports.
Butter prices for remainder of 2015 and early 2016 are raised as prices have remained stronger than expected into early December. Cheese prices are lowered slightly for 2015 and 2016 based on current price movements and expected larger domestic supplies. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are reduced for 2015 and 2016 as domestic and international supplies are expected to pressure prices.