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Farm Bureau Economist Weighs in on Latest Crop Repor



(NAFB)--With a later maturing crop this year than in 2012 - American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Todd Davis notes yield projections are becoming more accurate as the crop becomes ready for harvest.

USDA is forecasting a bin-busting corn crop of 13.84-billion bushels with an average yield of 155.3-bushels per acre. 2013-14 corn ending stocks are predicted to increase drastically to 1,855 million bushels - from 661-million bushels for 2012-13. Davis says that’s a shift from a 21-day end-of-year supply to a 53-day end-of-year supply. That’s going to cause a decline in the marketing-average price to $4.80 per bushel in 2013-14 - down from $6.90 per bushel for 2012-13.

The soybean crop is projected at 41.2-bushels per acre - a reduction from the August estimate. That brings the soybean crop forecast down 36-million bushels to 3.15-billion bushels. The 2013-14 soybean ending stocks are expected to sharply decrease from the August estimate - to 150-million bushels. The American Farm Bureau Federation notes that equates to about 17-days of soybeans in the grain bins on September 1 of 2014.

Still - the projected marketing-year average price for soybeans is expected to decline from $14.40 per bushel for 2012-13 to $12.50 per bushel for 2013-14. Davis says soybean prices will be less connected to corn in the coming year. He says market dynamics are changing. After following the corn market the last three years - Davis says soybean prices are poised to separate from corn. With corn stocks projected to increase - he says the corn price will have limited upside potential as the market has to clear. He says tight soybean stocks will keep prices high enough to ration use throughout another marketing year.

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