COLUMBIA, MO - The May 1 Missouri winter wheat production forecast is 50.4 million bushels. If realized, this would be an increase of 28 percent from last year and the most production in the state since 2008. Yields in the state are expected to average 53 bushels per acre, four bushels below the 2012 average yield but above the ten year average of 51 bushels per acre. Harvested acres are estimated at 950,000, also the most since the 1.16 million acres harvested in 2008. Planted acres are forecast at 1.1 million acres. As of May 5, the Missouri wheat crop was generally in good condition with 63 percent of the crop reported in good to excellent condition. However, the cool wet spring has slowed maturation, and heading progress was only at 13 percent, over two weeks behind normal.
Missouri hay stocks are estimated at 600 thousand tons, the lowest since 1984. This is coming off of the drought reduced hay production of 5.254 million tons in 2012, the lowest production since 1988. Stocks are 41% lower than the May 1, 2012 level.
U.S. Winter Wheat Production Down 10 Percent from 2012
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.49 billion bushels, down 10 percent from 2012. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 32.7 million acres, down 6 percent from last year. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 45.4 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from the previous year. Hard Red Winter production, at 768 million bushels, is down 23 percent from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 501 million bushels, is up 19 percent from 2012. White Winter, at 217 million bushels, is down 2 percent from a year ago. Of the White Winter production, 11.4 million bushels are Hard White and 205 million bushels are Soft White The May wheat yield and production forecast and the hay supply estimates are based on a farm operator survey conducted by the USDA-NASS. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviewers.