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Economist Analyzes Latest USDA Numbers



(NAFB)--American Farm Bureau Federation analysts note the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report shows a record corn crop is still reachable despite the slow start to planting. The report forecasts a corn yield of 158-bushels per acre - implying a 14.14-billion bushel crop. The current record corn crop was produced in 2009 at 13.09-billion bushels. If this large crop is realized - the report projects corn stocks could increase to slightly more than two-billion bushels - reducing forecast farm-level prices to less than five-dollars per bushel. American Farm Bureau Economist Todd Davis says export predictions are down from the February outlook conference and use projections may be overly generous. He notes the U.S. will have to compete in the export market this fall with Brazil - which will be producing its second corn crop of the year.

The May WASDE report also forecasts a record year for the soybean crop. The projection is for a crop of 3.39-billion bushels - up 375-million from 2012. Soybean stocks are expected to increase to 265-million bushels - with the stocks-to-use ratio at 8.1-percent. The farm price for the crop is down to $10.50 per bushel.

Ultimately - Davis says the weather will be the deciding factor. He says it’s all in the hands of Mother Nature and she will dictate the weather to allow for the amount of corn and soybeans that will be planted and the growing season weather. Davis says the May WASDE is a good starting point for the projections - but there’s a long way to go before the uncertainty of 2013 production and stocks become resolved.  


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