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Farm Bureau Economist on WASDE



(NAFB)--The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report shows no change in the projected corn and soybean yields. The 2013 corn yield is projected to be 156.5-bushels per acre.

The soybean yield is forecast at 44.5-bushels per acre. American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Todd Davis notes corn production is down slightly from June though.Due to slightly lower harvested acreage expectations - the corn crop is now projected at 13.95-billion bushels - a slight decline from the 14-billion bushel projection in last month’s report. Despite the decrease - Davis points out corn production is still on target for a record-setting year if realized. Davis says the soybean crop could be record-setting as well if the 3.42-billion bushel production forecast is obtained.

Corn and soybean acreage reflected the acreage survey released June 28th - which meant an increase of corn planted acres to 97.4-million and soybean planted acres to 77.7-million. A dip of 50-million bushels to 1.25-billion is expected for 2013-14 corn exports due to a later harvest and tight old crop corn stocks. That would be an increase of 550-million bushels from the 2012-13 marketing year. Davis says the estimate may be optimistic because of South American competition. Corn ending stocks are estimated to build significantly - from 729-million in 2012-13 to a projected 1.959-billion for 2013-14. Davis notes the projections are higher than the trade pre-report predictions of 1.88-billion. He says the elevated corn ending stocks predictions will reflect negatively on marketing-year prices - reducing the estimated 2013 farm price to $4.80 per bushel from $6.95 per bushel in 2012.

U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to more than double from the 2012-13 marketing year - projected at 295-million bushels for 2013-14. That’s an increase from 265-million bushels in June’s WASDE report. The increase will lower the 2013-14 projected soybean price to $10.75 per bushel from $14.40 per bushel in the 2012-13 marketing year.  


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