WASDE: Heat and Drought Impact Yields

COLUMBIA, MO - With little rain over the past two months, drought conditions, which began  in mid-July, intensified over northern Missouri in the last month . This marks the fourth year in a row the state has experienced drought. Dryness has spread through much of the state 
with 81% of the state reporting short to very short topsoil moisture as of September 8.

As a result, crop conditions have declined and yield forecasts for all major crops have been decreased from the August 1 forecast with the exception of rice, a crop entirely irrigated. Overall, yields are still well above last year’s yields when the drought was much more intense,  widespread and longer in duration.

The Missouri corn yield forecast was reduced to 125 bushels per acre, 5 bushels below the  August 1 forecast. This is below the ten year average yield of 127 and the fourth year in a row below the yield trend. Corn planted acres are estimated at 3.45 million acres and acres harvested for grain are forecast at 3.25 million acres, unchanged from August 1. The resulting forecast production for the state is 406.3 million bushels, 64 percent more than 2012 and the fourth highest total for Missouri. 
The soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 35 bushels per acre, 4 bushels below the August 1 forecast. Harvested acres are expected to total 5.64 million acres out of 5.7 million planted. Production is forecast at 197.4 million bushels, 27 percent above last year and the fourth highest soybean production total for Missouri. 

U.S. Highlights:

Corn production is forecast at 13.8 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the August forecast and up 28 percent from 2012. If realized, this will be a new record production for the United States. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 155.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the August forecast and 31.9 bushels above the 2012 average. If realized, this will be the highest average yield since 2009. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 89.1 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but up 2 percent from 2012. 

Soybean production is forecast at 3.15 billion bushels, down 3 percent from August but up 4 percent from last year. If realized, production will be the fourth largest on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from last month but up 1.6 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 76.4 million acres, unchanged from August but up slightly from 2012.

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Locations : MissouriNorthern Missouri