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Seasonable Fall Weather to Thank for Good Crop News



(NAFB)--USDA’s November reports released Friday provided a much-needed update to the size of the 2013 corn and soybean crop - as the October report wasn’t released due to the government shutdown. If the numbers in the November Crop Production report hold - the 2013 corn crop will top the production record set in 2009. A nearly 14-billion bushel crop is projected - more than a 3.2-billion bushel increase over the 2012 drought-stricken corn crop. The average corn yield is estimated at 160.4-bushels per acre - up about five bushels from the September report. American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Todd Davis says the seasonable fall weather across much of the nation helped late-planted crops develop and increased yield projections from the previous report released in September. Corn ending stocks for 2013-14 are pegged at 1.887-billion bushels - about a 130-percent increase in stocks from 2012-13. According to Davis - the ending stocks ratio for corn is projected at 14.6-percent - which would be the largest stock-use ration since 2005. The increase in stocks is expected to bring prices down from the 2012-13 average price of $6.89 per bushel to a projected $4.50 per bushel for 2013-14. The projected marketing-year average price for soybeans is also down. Wit soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 projected up 21-percent to 170-million bushels - USDA is forecasting an average price of $12.15 per bushel - down from last year’s price of $14.40 per bushel. The soybean crop for 2013-14 is forecast at 3.258-billion bushels on an average yield of 43 bushels per acre. Looking ahead - Davis says U.S. and global corn stocks are projected to rebuild to levels not seen in several years. He says U.S. soybean stocks will remain tight for the 2013-14 marketing year - while world stocks are projected to increase to the largest in three years. Davis says it appears U.S. soybean prices have greater fundamental support compared to corn - and corn bears the greater downside price risk at this point.

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