CORN:
December corn ended up a penny at $4.68 1/4 Monday, a quiet day of trading two days before USDA’s next WASDE report. Dow Jones’ survey of analysts doesn’t expect much change in the 14.86 billion bushel (bb) production estimate, but does expect USDA’s estimate of new-crop ending corn stocks to be lowered from 2.102 bb to 2.048 bb, still a comfortable surplus. Monday’s radar is mostly clear for the Corn Belt with showers in eastern North Dakota. The upper Midwest is expecting light to moderate rains the next five days with warmer temperatures across the Corn Belt, generally favorable for crop development. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report is apt to show another week of crop ratings near 75% good-to-excellent and 95% or more of corn planted. In central Brazil, the safrinha crop continues to grow in hot and dry conditions the next seven days, but prices in Brazil remain near their low for the year. In Argentina, 35% of the corn crop has been harvested and conditions will be mostly favorable for further harvest this week until rain returns near the weekend. Pest issues have limited this year’s corn crop in Argentina. With ongoing uncertainty about U.S. corn plantings and yield in 2024, the trend in December corn remains down.
SOYBEANS:
November soybeans ended up a penny at $11.58 3/4 Monday with July soybean meal up $7.30 at $368.00 and July bean oil up 0.03 cent at 43.66 cents. Similar to corn, Dow Jones’ survey of analysts doesn’t expect much change in USDA’s 4.450 bb U.S. soybean production estimate, but does expect a slight increase new-crop U.S. ending soybean stocks, from 445 mb to 455 mb, still the highest in five years. There will be attention on USDA’s estimate of Brazil’s soybean production after southern Brazil was hit by historic flooding the past month. Unfortunately for the region, more rain is expected later this week. USDA’s current estimate for Brazil is 154.0 mmt or 5.61 bb, while Conab’s estimate is at 147.7 mmt or 5.43 bb. Argentina’s soybean harvest is 92% complete and on its way to the crushers. Based on July futures, the value of crushed soybeans ended at $13.66 per bushel Monday, good incentive to keep U.S. processors buying and crushing soybeans. So far in the new season, the trend remains down for November soybeans with specs net short 51,989 contracts of soybeans as of June 4.
WHEAT:
July KC wheat fell 22 cents to $6.43 3/4 Monday, the eighth lower close in nine days and a new one-month low for the first time in June. Despite ongoing concerns about dry crop conditions in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, the July contract has started the new month with a loss of 65 cents, pressured by the anticipation of new supplies as winter wheat harvest starts to pick up around the northern hemisphere. Last week’s news that Turkey was banning wheat imports for four months also added to selling in wheat. Ukraine and southwestern Russia are expecting partial coverages of light rains the next seven days, tending to favor western Ukraine, while temperatures remain above normal. Here in the U.S., wheat conditions should stay stable in Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Winter wheat harvest may see some rain disruption in central Texas the next two days, but it shouldn’t be a significant problem. For spring wheat, the Dakotas are expecting moderate rains by the weekend, but western Montana and the Pacific Northwest are mostly dry and deserve watching. With traders assessing Russia’s wheat conditions against early winter wheat harvest progress, the price trends remain up for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats, but short-term momentum has turned down.
