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CORN:
December corn closed down 7 1/4 cents at $4.81 1/4 Wednesday, falling back from its highest prices in over three months as domestic weather concerns look less threatening after Wednesday's storms move out. Rain and chances for severe weather will form around the Delta and Ohio River Valley Wednesday, adding to conditions that are already wet. After Wednesday, rain chances lean toward southern states the next seven days, giving the rest of the Corn Belt better chances for fields to dry between occasional rains with above normal temperatures moving in from the northwestern Plains, starting this weekend. Many are hoping USDA will lower its corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil on Friday, but it is too early for anyone to be confident about the extent of flood damage in southern Brazil and the flooding isn't over yet. Traders will likely pay more attention to Conab's estimates, due out on May 14. So far, Conab's view has been that Brazil's safrinha corn crop is in good shape, helped by early planting. With Brazil's safrinha crop encountering hot and dry weather, the trend in December corn remains up.
SOYBEANS:
November soybeans closed down 15 cents at $12.13 Wednesday, pulling back from Tuesday's close, the highest in 2024. As mentioned above, much of the Midwest should see better planting opportunities after Wednesday, aided by next week's warmer temperatures and with occasional showers to dodge. If planting goes well the rest of this month, we'll be looking at a crop starting the season with the most favorable soil moisture in four years. After May, expect above normal precipitation in the northwestern Corn Belt in June and in the southern and Eastern Corn Belt in July. Above normal temperatures are expected to prevail every month for the rest of 2024 so it will be important for rain amounts to verify. Friday's WASDE report is expected to show U.S. ending soybean stocks estimated almost 100 million bushels (mb) higher than the current estimate of 340 mb for 2023-24. Meanwhile, the forecast remains mostly wet for southern Brazil the next two weeks, a disaster for the remaining 10% of Brazil's soybean harvest. Harvest progress remains slow in Argentina, but the situation doesn't compare to the hardships endured in southern Brazil. For now, the trend for November soybeans is up.
WHEAT:
July KC wheat fell 15 1/2 cents to $6.48 1/2, a second day lower after Monday's close was the highest in 2024. The two-month rally that has taken place since prices hit a low of $5.43 1/4 on March 6 has largely been due to the emergence of several unexpected crop threats in early 2024, some of which may get worse and some of which may lessen. Drought in Alberta has been partially helped by this week's rain and snow, but much more precipitation will be needed in the new season. Western Europe is enjoying a temporary break from excess rain with more expected to return next week. Crops in southwestern Russia could still use more rain and are being tested by cold temperatures that will last into next week. Western Kansas received rain late last week. To the north, Montana and Idaho are getting mixtures of snow and rain on Wednesday and have more chances for precipitation next week. Warmer temperatures will also help planting prospects in the northwestern U.S. Plains, starting Friday, although there will also be more chances for rain next week. After several months of wheat prices being held under bearish pressure, the price trends remain up for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats.
