Closing Markets Monday, February 3, 2025

 

GRAINS:

Row crop markets were extremely volatile following a weekend worth of tariff speculation, which continues to be an ongoing development. The 25% tariff on Mexico, which was set to go into effect Tuesday, has already been postponed one month following a tentative agreement made between Mexico and U.S. officials regarding the border. Grain futures quickly found strength on the news, with corn futures posting an 18 1/2 cent range to begin the week, while soybeans posted a 28 1/2 cent range as well. Outside markets traded inflationary concerns to begin the week, with the U.S. dollar trading to its highest level since its mid-January peak. Although, as trade concerns eased, so did the dollar. Crude oil futures were also higher, attempting a breakout of their recent price slump. March corn closed up 6 3/4 cents and May corn was up 6 3/4 cents. March soybeans closed up 16 1/4 cents and May soybeans were up 15 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 6 1/2 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 7 1/4 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 1 cent.

 

LIVESTOCK:

One would have logically expected the live cattle complex to be trading higher this week as Friday’s Cattle Inventory report clearly showed that there were fewer beef cows and heifers in the United States compared to a year ago. But what seems to be overclouding that bullish fundamental fact is that on Saturday, Feb. 1, APHIS announced that cattle imports from Mexico are going to resume any day now. We don’t know how many cattle are going to come, or when specifically, but these two questions alone are enough of a reason for the live cattle complex to be trading lower. The biggest fear the feeder cattle complex has is that Mexican imports could add more supply to the market and negatively affect prices. The lean hog complex has plummeted lower, as market participants try to make sense of the slew of announcements that broke over the weekend. While President Trump announcement earlier Monday morning that Mexico won’t have tariffs imposed on it for at least another month, the market is trading in an unraveled fashion as U.S. pork producers are concerned about their ability to export pork into Mexico as they’re our biggest export market.