CORN:
December corn ended down 5 1/4 cents at $4.81 3/4 Thursday, falling back from Wednesday’s new four-month high, while much of the northern and Western Corn Belt gets an opportunity to plant the next couple days where fields are dry enough. Early next week, rain returns to the central and Eastern Corn Belt, continuing to make planting difficult in the month of May. In Wednesday’s Ag Weather Forum it was discussed about the possibility of this year’s late-planted corn being subject to hot temperatures during pollination, thanks to the return of a La Nina influence. Earlier Thursday, USDA said 29.2 million bushels (mb) of old-crop corn and 5.0 mb of new-crop were sold for export last week with Mexico named the top buyer of both seasons. 37.5 mb of corn were shipped, putting total shipments in 2023-24 up 28% from a year ago, close to USDA’s estimated pace. In central Brazil, the safrinha crop continues to develop in hot and dry conditions that are likely to last until harvest. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 25% of the corn crop was harvested, down from the five-year average of 34% for this time of year. For now, the trend in December corn remains up.
SOYBEANS:
November soybeans ended down 2 cents at $11.99 Thursday, staying near the $12.00 mark, in spite of another reason for traders to be concerned about trade relations with China. Reuters reported the U.S. moved Thursday to block 26 Chinese cotton traders or warehouse facilities as part of an earlier effort to ban goods made with forced labor. This follows Tuesday’s news of new U.S. tariffs enacted on Chinese goods, largely intended to promote U.S. production of important supplies. Wednesday’s lower-than-expected April crush estimate of 166.0 mb from the National Oilseeds Processors also added to bearish concerns for soybean prices, another possible warning of soybean oil demand being cut back for making biofuels. In Brazil however, HellenicShippingNews.com reported soybean oil prices are trading near their highest prices in two years, as the severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS) has disrupted crush activity. Thursday’s radar shows rain in Missouri and Oklahoma, giving other states a chance to keep planting until the next rains arrive. Southeastern crop areas will be wet the next couple days, followed by Nebraska and Iowa on Sunday and Monday and then the central and eastern Midwest early next week. Earlier Thursday, USDA said 9.8 mb of old-crop soybeans and 926,000 bushels of new-crop soybeans were sold for export last week with Egypt listed as the top buyer of old-crop soybeans. 16.3 mb of soybeans were shipped last week, putting the season-to-date total at 1.437 bb, down 18% from a year ago and a little below USDA’s estimated export pace. Even with an uncertain planting pace and concerns about trade with China, the trend for November soybeans remains up.
WHEAT:
July KC wheat tried, but struggled to trade higher Thursday, closing down 1 3/4 cents at $6.73 1/4. Earlier this week, winter wheat prices traded at their highest prices of 2024, boosted by concerns of freeze damage to part of Russia’s wheat crop and supported also by concerns about too much moisture in western Europe. With weather in charge, trading has turned indecisive the past two days. Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council’s HRW Wheat Tour covered southern routes from Colby to Wichita, Kansas, and ended with an average yield estimate of 42.4 bushels per acre (bpa), less than the 49.4 bpa on day 1, but still much higher than last year’s day 2 yield. Rain followed Wednesday’s tour and participants noted the crop could still be helped by late rains in the filling period. On Thursday, the final day of the tour recorded an average yield estimate of 46.5 bpa, up from the tour yield estimate of 30.0 bpa last year. On May 10, NASS estimated Kansas wheat production at 268 mb with a yield of 38.0 bpa. Thursday’s radar showed more rain in Oklahoma, Missouri and Illinois and plenty more coming to the SRW wheat crop areas the next 10 days, adding to the potential for excess moisture. Above-normal temperatures will be helpful the next seven days, before cooler weather returns the middle of next week. For now, the price trends remain up for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats.
