March corn closed up 3 1/4 cents and May corn was up 2 cents. March soybeans closed up 2 1/4 cents and May soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 6 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 3 1/2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 2 1/2 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.67 at 107.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 359.0 points at 44,821.0. April gold is up $25.20 at $2,953.90, March silver is up $0.07 at $32.86 and March copper is up $0.0770. March crude oil is down $0.06 at $71.31, March ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0012, March RBOB gasoline is up $0.0221 and March natural gas is up $0.067.
CORN:
Two days removed from the February WASDE, the corn market has seems to have officially deemed the figure as neutral to price implications as futures have returned to the same levels that were being tested prior to the Tuesday release from USDA. The weather outlook in South America still looks pretty good for the most part over the next two weeks. However, corn conditions slipped again in Thursday’s report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, this time by seven points down to 67% of the crop in normal to excellent condition. This compares to 83% this time last year. Notably, soil moisture condition was also reported as reduced to 59% adequate to optimal, compared to 63% last week and 74% this time last year. This will likely rejuvenate some bullish corn traders who were discouraged by the 1 million metric ton (mmt) cut from Argentina’s corn crop by the USDA on Tuesday, which came in below many private analyst expectations. The next key report for South America will be Friday’s planting progress from the Mato Grosso Institute of Ag Economics, out at 1 p.m. CST. In U.S. corn news, export sales on Thursday morning were again very strong. The 64.9 million bushels (mb) of old-crop sales was very near the top end of analysts’ expectations and, combined with shipments for the week ended Feb. 6 of 53.3 mb, keeps the current export book running 28% ahead of last year. At the current pace, commitments are likely to surpass 2 billion bushels (bb) within the next month, which will leave just 450 mb to go over the remaining five-plus months in the marketing year. In corn technicals, $4.90 now stands as the clear pivot point for nearby corn futures. In the 17 sessions since the March board first touched $4.90 on Jan. 21, the market has closed below this mark nine times and above this mark eight times, all the while rarely deviating more than a nickel or so from it and often trading either side throughout the same session. To the upside, $4.97 is still the bullish target for a close to open up an extension of the rally toward and potentially into the $5.00 range. To the downside, there is firm support currently in the low $4.80s.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures traded modestly higher for most of the session, but gains were limited by a bearish cloud still looming over the marketplace largely due to the South American outlook reaffirmed in Tuesday’s WASDE report. Brazilian agency CONAB released its February crop report Thursday morning, reporting a stable estimate for soybean production at 166.01 mmt, just fractionally lower than last month’s estimate. The agency actually raised the corn estimate by 2.46 mmt to 122.01 mmt, which is still 4 mmt lower than USDA is estimating, while the soybean estimate sits 3 mmt below the USDA. To the south in Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported soybean conditions slightly lower again this week at 64% normal to excellent versus 68% last week and 83% last year. The agency reports right now about 50% of the soybean crop setting pods, while 14% are filling pods. Again, the weather in the near-term outlook does call for more widespread precipitation, which should aid in developing soybeans, but obviously the local analysts are seeing some damage done to the crops through the past two months of hit-or-miss weather. In U.S. soybean demand, last week’s net export sales as of Feb. 6 totaled just 6.8 mb, while soybean shipments of 40.5 mb did work to keep the total commitment pace steady at 12% ahead of 2023/24. In soybean technicals, March soybeans have found support for the moment in the mid $10.20s. The 50-day moving average now at $10.17 and slightly rising, is likely still a price objective for bearish traders. Otherwise to the upside, the 20-day moving average at $10.49 1/4 is a reasonable short-term target for bullish runs.
WHEAT:
March Kansas City wheat futures snapped a four-day loss streak on Thursday and in doing so regained the losses posted following the USDA report on Tuesday. Export sales reported Thursday morning for wheat were very good at 20.9 mb, primarily to Mexico, South Korea, and the Philippines. This was near the top end of the range of analyst expectations for wheat sales. This allowed the U.S. export book to gain a point to now 9% ahead of 2023/24 pace. Meanwhile, shipment pace is 23% of last year with the USDA estimating a 20% increase in exports, year-over-year. In wheat technicals, March Kansas City wheat again attempted to move north of $6.00 Thursday but fell just short. This is the upside target followed by the high close for the rally thus far at $6.07 1/2. Support is seen in the very upper $5.80s.
