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CORN:

Another new three-month high with more moderate to heavy rains expected over the next three days, adding to already wet planting conditions, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt. With this week's rain comes more chances for severe weather in the central and southern Plains and plenty of interest in USDA's Crop Progress report.. .. At the same time, Brazil's corn crop is enduring hot and dry conditions in May and the corn harvest in Argentina was downgraded to 1.83 billion bushels. Looming ahead is the USDA's WASDE and Crop Production reports for May due out Friday morning.

SOYBEANS:

The highest close in three months, riding the wave of short-covering concerns. U.S. producers are looking for breaks in the weather to get back into fields, but so far, the opportunities are limited. The forecast looks drier after Wednesday, but in many areas, the fields will need additonal time to dry and rains are expected to return May 11 to 13. Southern Brazil almost looks hopeless for any remaining harvest as more rain in this week's forecast adds to extensive flooding in the area. Argentina's soybean harvest, at 36% complete, is behind its normal pace and will have some rain to contend with this week, but should eventually finish and does not compare to the extreme conditions in southern Brazil.

WHEAT:

July KC wheat started lower Sunday evening after southwestern Kansas received rain over the weekend, but prices didn't stay down long, finishing up at $6.75 1/4, a new high in 2024. July Chicago wheat was up 26 1/4 cents at $6.48 3/4, also a new 2024 high with rain and a risk of storms headed to the Delta and Ohio River Valley by Wednesday. It has been a long time since producers have seen this kind of active buying and it is fair to wonder what kind of conditions crops will be in after this week's storms. Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report will offer updates on winter wheat ratings and percentages of surplus topsoil moisture. For spring wheat, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Montana are expecting moderate to heavy rains the next few days and the moisture will be mostly welcome. After Wednesday, drier weather and warmer temperatures should help give planting efforts a timely boost.

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CORN:

December corn closed down 7 1/4 cents at $4.81 1/4 Wednesday, falling back from its highest prices in over three months as domestic weather concerns look less threatening after Wednesday's storms move out. Rain and chances for severe weather will form around the Delta and Ohio River Valley Wednesday, adding to conditions that are already wet. After Wednesday, rain chances lean toward southern states the next seven days, giving the rest of the Corn Belt better chances for fields to dry between occasional rains with above normal temperatures moving in from the northwestern Plains, starting this weekend. Many are hoping USDA will lower its corn and soybean production estimates for Brazil on Friday, but it is too early for anyone to be confident about the extent of flood damage in southern Brazil and the flooding isn't over yet. Traders will likely pay more attention to Conab's estimates, due out on May 14. So far, Conab's view has been that Brazil's safrinha corn crop is in good shape, helped by early planting. With Brazil's safrinha crop encountering hot and dry weather, the trend in December corn remains up.

SOYBEANS:

November soybeans closed down 15 cents at $12.13 Wednesday, pulling back from Tuesday's close, the highest in 2024. As mentioned above, much of the Midwest should see better planting opportunities after Wednesday, aided by next week's warmer temperatures and with occasional showers to dodge. If planting goes well the rest of this month, we'll be looking at a crop starting the season with the most favorable soil moisture in four years. After May, expect above normal precipitation in the northwestern Corn Belt in June and in the southern and Eastern Corn Belt in July. Above normal temperatures are expected to prevail every month for the rest of 2024 so it will be important for rain amounts to verify. Friday's WASDE report is expected to show U.S. ending soybean stocks estimated almost 100 million bushels (mb) higher than the current estimate of 340 mb for 2023-24. Meanwhile, the forecast remains mostly wet for southern Brazil the next two weeks, a disaster for the remaining 10% of Brazil's soybean harvest. Harvest progress remains slow in Argentina, but the situation doesn't compare to the hardships endured in southern Brazil. For now, the trend for November soybeans is up.

WHEAT:

July KC wheat fell 15 1/2 cents to $6.48 1/2, a second day lower after Monday's close was the highest in 2024. The two-month rally that has taken place since prices hit a low of $5.43 1/4 on March 6 has largely been due to the emergence of several unexpected crop threats in early 2024, some of which may get worse and some of which may lessen. Drought in Alberta has been partially helped by this week's rain and snow, but much more precipitation will be needed in the new season. Western Europe is enjoying a temporary break from excess rain with more expected to return next week. Crops in southwestern Russia could still use more rain and are being tested by cold temperatures that will last into next week. Western Kansas received rain late last week. To the north, Montana and Idaho are getting mixtures of snow and rain on Wednesday and have more chances for precipitation next week. Warmer temperatures will also help planting prospects in the northwestern U.S. Plains, starting Friday, although there will also be more chances for rain next week. After several months of wheat prices being held under bearish pressure, the price trends remain up for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats.

Friday's closing markets